Joint estimation of survival and breeding probability in female dolphins and calves with uncertainty in state assignment.

摘要: While the population growth rate in long-lived species is highly sensitive to adult survival, reproduction can also significantly drive dynamics. Reproductive parameters be challenging estimate as breeders and nonbreeders may vary resighting probability reproductive status difficult assess. We extended capture-recapture (CR) models previously fitted for data on other marine mammals demographic while accounting detection heterogeneity between individuals state uncertainty regarding status. applied this model 106 female bottlenose dolphins observed over 13 years. The differed depending breeding Concerning uncertainty, offspring were not always sighted with their mother, older calves easier detect than young-of-the-year (YOY), respectively, 0.79 (95% CI 0.59-0.90) 0.58 0.46-0.68). This possibly led inaccurate assignment of females. Adult survival was high (0.97 95% 0.96-0.98) did differ according Young-of-the-year 1-year-old had a higher 2-year-old (respectively, 0.66 0.50-0.78 0.45 0.29-0.61). reduced probably related weaning, period during which young are exposed more risks since they lose protection feeding from mother. having new YOY females that raised calf age 3 or lost (0.71, 0.45-0.88). Yet, much lower nonbreeding (0.33, 0.26-0.42). multievent CR framework we used flexible could easily modified study questions taxa (marine terrestrial) aimed at modeling parameters.