The economically optimal warming limit of the planet

摘要: Abstract. Both climate-change damages and mitigation will incur economic costs. While the risk of severe increases with level of global warming (Dell et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014b, 2018; Lenton 2008), mitigating costs increase steeply more stringent limits (IPCC, 2014a; Luderer 2013; Rogelj 2015). Here, we show that global limit that minimizes this century's total economic costs climate change lies between 1.9 2  ∘ C, if temperature changes continue to impact national economic growth rates as observed in past instantaneous growth effects are neither compensated nor amplified by additional effects in following years. The result is robust across a wide range normative assumptions on valuation future welfare inequality aversion. We combine estimates impacts for 186 countries (applying an empirical damage function from Burke 2015) with derived state-of-the-art energy–economy–climate model highly resolved options (Kriegler et 2017; 2013, Our purely assessment, even though it omits non-market damages, provides support the international Paris Agreement change. political goal limiting global “well below 2 degrees” thus also economically optimal goal given above assumptions adaptation persistence.