Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

摘要: While the international community aims to limit global warming below 2 ° C prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a agreement implement emissions reductions required reach this target. We use an integrated energy–economy–climate modeling system examine how further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect mitigation challenges. With comprehensive starting after 2015 full we estimate that maximum 21st century may still be limited with likely probability at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up ∼0.4 ° if implementation policies is delayed another 15 years, chiefly because transitional If carbon capture storage (CCS) unavailable, lower achievable rises ∼0.3 ° C. Our results show in negotiations within decade imperative keep target reach.