Investigation of temperature and its indices under climate change scenarios over different regions of Rajasthan state in India

摘要: Abstract The ongoing increases in concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gas will most likely affect global climate for the rest this century. Global warming brings a huge provocation to society and human beings. Single extreme events increased variability have greater impact than long-term changes mean climatic variables. This study analyzed temperature projections Rajasthan state, India using data obtain from two General Circulation Models (GFCM21 HadCM3) three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Range Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, B1. A 30 years maximum (Tmax) minimum (Tmin) period 1976–2005 has been obtained Meteorological Department (IMD) by LARS-WG5 generate weather series different periods i.e. 2011–2040 (2025s), 2041–2070 (2055s), 2071–2100 (2085s). Further determine events, baseline future was represented eight indices. Results illustrate that an increase are observed all periods. average base over four regions highest region 3 which shows incessantly about 2.6 °C north-east north-west part Rajasthan. Two GCMs depicts incessant temperatures may be seasons varies 2.43 °C 4.27 °C direction south north during 2071–2100. While temperature, range 0.23 °C 1.42 °C south-east 2011–2040. In indices, number tropical nights (TR20), warmest day (TX90p), night (TN90p) summer days (SU25) is expected found 2 (39.4 days) 1 (38.8 days) periods, followed regions, annual occurrence Cold Spells Duration Indicator (CSDI) decreased Warm (WSDI)