An Assessment of the diversity in scenario-based tsunami forecasts for the Indian Ocean

摘要: This work examines the extent to which tsunami forecasts from different numerical forecast systems might be expected differ under real-time conditions. is done through comparing amplitudes a number of existing scenario databases for eight hypothetical events within Indian Ocean. Forecasts maximum amplitude are examined at 10 output points distributed throughout Ocean range depths. The results show that there considerable variability in and on average, standard deviation approximately 62% mean value. It also shown significant portion this diversity can attributed lengths time series. These have implications interoperability Regional Tsunami Service Providers