Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

摘要: Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) commonly used tool assess potential impacts on distributions species. We use SDMs predict geographic ranges for 243 birds Australian tropical savannas, and project changes richness under future scenario between 1990 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition variability capacity track climatically suitable environments. Here we effect dispersal model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no partial-dispersal permitting at rate 30 km per decade. As expected, projected patterns are highly sensitive scenario. Projected range sizes decreased 66% if was assumed, but 89% when assumed. However, realistic should not assume single all such, assigned each appropriate category based individual mobility habitat specificity; this permitted best estimates where will be future. Under “realistic” scenario, 67% showed that migratory tropical-endemic predicted benefit from with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots savanna expected move, southern savannas southward along east coast Australia, decreasing arid zone. Understanding complexity effects species’ incorporating capacities crucial toward developing adaptation policies conservation