Earthquake probability in engineering—Part 2: Earthquake recurrence and limitations of Gutenberg-Richter b-values for the engineering of critical structures: The third Richard H. Jahns distinguished lecture in engineering geology

摘要: Abstract Ellis L. Krinitzsky, 1993. Earthquake probability in engineering—Part 2: recurrence and limitations of Gutenberg-Richter b-values for the engineering critical structuresEng. Geol., 36: 000-000. are dysfunctional site-specific applications structures. Their dysfunction results from differences mechanism faulting nonuniformity occurrences earthquakes over time space. The mechanisms include stick slip, various categories controlled a multitude thermodynamic slip processes which range rock melting to stress releases by hydrothermal other fluids at or near lithostatic pressures. These cause accelerated fault movements chaotic earthquake occurrences, while asperities barriers along faults contribute temporary clustering effects that develop characteristic but do not give them continuity through time. B-line projections must incorporate these complexities, they can so only when inclusive large, seismically active areas such as southern California, Aleutian arc, etc. Within relatively small source determine damaging ground motions individual sites, become atM ≥ 5.0. Because determinants probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, there severe restraints on usefulness methods assign latter major dams, nuclear power plants, liquefied petroleum gas installations, repositories dangerous wastes, military command centers, sensitive industrial defense fire stations, schools, hospitals.