作者: R.M.W. Musson , S.L. Sargeant
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摘要: The earliest attempt to map seismic activity, and hence hazard, in the UK was made by O’Reilly (1884), (perhaps better known) of Ballore (1896) does show a division British Isles into distinct zones. However, at this early date, hazard could only be expressed terms of simple distinctions between levels frequency earthquake occurrence, usually subjectively assessed, not as ground motion, which is how today. The first true (in modern understanding word) for Great Britain thus that Lilwall (1976), intensity with 200-year return period, using an extreme-value technique based on work Milne Davenport (1969). A subsequent study Ove Arup (1993) used probabilistic assessment (PSHA) to calculate selected points UK, but these were too few contoured. The contour maps territory produced PSHA therefore those of Musson Winter (1996), prepared then Department Trade Industry (DTI). The was, course, also covered two major international mapping projects, Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Programme (GSHAP) SESAME (Grunthal et al 1996, Jimenez et 2001). Both studies common source model UK, which derived from simplified version (1996) model. The results are conformity those although different ground motion models used. An updated published Jackson (2004), intensity. This is described (2004a). A specific zoning report dam safety has since been widely circulated (Halcrow 1990). This assesses completely subjective way high, medium low classes, understood entirely relative terms. Despite its informal nature, it proved reasonable depiction relative hazard when compared later quantitative maps.