Evaluation of Strategies to Control a Potential Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Sweden

摘要: To minimize the potential consequences of an introduction foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease in Europe, EU member states are required to present a contingency plan. This study used simulation model outbreak scenarios Sweden, and evaluate best control strategies. The was informed by Swedish livestock structure using herd information from cattle, pig small ruminant holdings country. contact based on animal movement data studies investigating movements between farms veterinarians, service trucks other farm visitors. All included depopulation detected herds, 3 km protection 10 surveillance zones, tracing days national standstill. effect availability resources, i.e. number field veterinarians per day, timeliness enforcement interventions, assessed. With estimated currently available FMD Sweden is expected be controlled (i.e. last infected detected) within three weeks detection any evaluated scenario. density area where epidemic started would have little impact time outbreak, but spread high areas require more compared lower density. use vaccination did not result reduction herds. Pre-emptive able reduce herds extreme designed test combination worst-case conditions virus spread, at cost doubling culled. likely resulted outbreaks predicted model, efficacy basic measures evaluated, under industry, considering assumed resources available. results indicate that duration extent could kept limited standard strategy