A Comparison between Two Simulation Models for Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

作者: Tariq Halasa , Anette Boklund , Anders Stockmarr , Claes Enøe , Lasse E. Christiansen

DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0092521

关键词:

摘要: Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were in order to compare the models’ predictions term spread, consequence, and ranking applied control strategies, discuss effect way spread is modeled on predicted outcomes each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), ISP 2.001.11) simulate a hypothetical FMD Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, location data period 1st October 2006 30th September 2007 was used. simulated using 3 different scenarios: 1) A basic scenario representing EU Danish 2) pre-emptive depopulation susceptible herds within 500 meters radius around detected herds, 3) suppressive vaccination 1,000 herds. Depopulation started 14 days following detection first infected herd. Five thousand index selected randomly, which there cattle located high density areas low areas, swine sheep Generally, larger, longer duration costlier epidemics than ISP, except when areas. supported rather depopulation, while indifferent alternative strategies. Nonetheless, absolute differences between strategies small making choice strategy during an outbreak be most likely based practical reasons.

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