Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter

作者: William J.M. Probert , Katriona Shea , Christopher J. Fonnesbeck , Michael C. Runge , Tim E. Carpenter

DOI: 10.1016/J.EPIDEM.2015.11.002

关键词: Computer scienceManagement by objectivesFoot-and-mouth diseasePopulationOutbreakDiseaseOptimal controlOperations researchStatisticFraming (social sciences)

摘要: Formal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate imperative framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal actions for outbreaks. illustrate an analysis that applied rapidly at start outbreak when there are multiple stakeholders involved with potentially objectives, also models upon compare actions. The output our frames subsequent discourse between policy-makers, modellers other stakeholders, by highlighting areas discord among different analysis. this approach context hypothetical foot-and-mouth (FMD) Cumbria, UK using outputs from five rigorously-studied simulation FMD spread. present both relative rankings performance controls within each model across range objectives. Results how change base metric measure success statistic rank according said metric. This work represents towards reconciling extensive modelling on problems frameworks structured decision making.

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