Modeling and mitigating winter hay bale damage by elk in a low prevalence bovine tuberculosis endemic zone.

摘要: Wildlife causes extensive crop damage throughout much of North America and these shared feeds are a key risk factor in the transmission diseases between wildlife livestock, including bovine tuberculosis (TB). Predicting use agricultural crops can provide insight directed toward targeted disease mitigation at areas potential indirect interaction. In this study, we quantified hay bales by elk (Cervus canadensis) during winter southwestern Manitoba, Canada using database 952 claims paid compensation from 1994 to 2012. We evaluated environmental factors predicted determine bale on each quarter section Resource Selection Probability Function (RSPF) model. The most important variables (as measured for based cumulative Akaike weights that scale 0 1) were distance protected (1.00), forest buffer around forage streams (0.99), (0.92), cereal oilseed cover (0.85), (0.82). then developed an RSPF-based predictive map identified with high probability (RSPF≥0.6), accounting 3.5% study area. multiplied RSPF values inverse proximity known cases TB positive determined 0.51% area had overall combined (i.e. adjusted ≥0.6). southern half where 164 yard barrier fences have been implemented since 2002, there has significant decrease number annual claims. Barrier fencing Riding Mountain National Park successful reducing it implemented. our area, prevalence both cattle (0.003%) (0.89%) is very low, precluding conventional epidemiological analyses. absence clear evidence specific routes transmission, advocate on-farm assessments efforts should continue address cause fencing. Mitigation effort especially focus identified, as sites interaction elk.