Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala aquifer region

摘要: The Ogallala or High Plains aquifer provides water for about 20% of the irrigated land in United States. About 20 km3 (16.6 million acre-feet) are withdrawn annually from this aquifer. In general, recharge has not compensated withdrawals since major irrigation development began region 1940s. mining been pictured as an analogue to climate change that many GCMs predict a warmer and drier future region. paper we attempt anticipate possible impacts on sustainability source other purposes We have applied HUMUS, Hydrologic Unit Model U.S. Missouri Arkansas-White-Red resource regions overlie Ogallala. imposed three general circulation model (GISS, UKTR BMRC) projections simulated changes may be induced yields (runoff plus lateral flow) ground recharge. Each GCM was HUMUS at levels global mean temperature (GMT) represent increasing severity (a surrogate time). also run atmospheric CO2 concentration (hereafter denoted by [CO2]) order estimate direct effects photosynthesis evapotranspiration. Since GISS project increased precipitation basin, increase there. BMRC predicts sharply decreased and, hence, reduced yields. Precipitation reductions even greater Arkansas basin under consequent yield losses. climates lead only moderate losses Arkansas. CO2-fertilization reverses these slightly. fertilization increases base (no change) case both basins. Recharge is all severities change.