From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons: New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries

摘要: Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless its level development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with comparative advantage, determined by endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries to exploit the latecomer advantage building up growing dynamically more advanced fast have structures similar theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers emulate leader-follower, flying-geese pattern has served well successfully catching-up economies since 18th century. emergence large middle-income such as China, India, Brazil new growth poles world, their dynamic climbing ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity all income levels currently below theirs -- including those Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been follower goose, China on verge graduating from low-skilled manufacturing jobs becoming leading dragon. That will free nearly 100 million labor-intensive jobs, enough than quadruple employment low-income countries. A trend emerging other poles. lower-income formulate implement viable strategy capture this industrialization set forth path structural change poverty reduction prosperity.