Factors driving Arabian gazelles ( Gazella arabica ) in Israel to extinction: time series analysis of population size and juvenile survival in an unexploited population

摘要: Wild populations of Arabian gazelles (Gazella arabica) were once common on the Peninsula, but today disappeared from large parts their former range. In Israel only a small population currently 30 individuals survived, although it was—and still is—well protected illegal hunting and habitat destruction. our study we aimed to identify factors influencing growth G. arabica in over last two decades (1995–2017). We tested impact five environmental variables including annual mean maximum temperature, rainfall, availability major food plants, competition with sympatric dorcas gazelle (G. dorcas) predation (mainly by wolves) dependent relating viability (population size, percentage fawn survival) using retrospective time series analysis. After testing for autocorrelations, generalized least squares (GLS) models autocorrelations at 3 6 years [GLS-AR(3, 6)] identified as best explain effects size. Wolf encounter rate had significant negative effect while size positive effect, suggesting that wolf shapes both species. For survival, model residuals did not reveal any autocorrelation fit GLS-AR(0) retained maximal temperature predictors. This result suggests strong increasing temperatures survival gazelles. Changed rainfall patterns, between species no survival.