Predicting the conservation status of data-deficient species.

作者: Lucie M. Bland , Ben Collen , C. David L. Orme , Jon Bielby

DOI: 10.1111/COBI.12372

关键词:

摘要: There is little appreciation of the level extinction risk faced by one-sixth over 65,000 species assessed International Union for Conservation Nature. Determining status these data-deficient (DD) essential to developing an accurate picture global biodiversity and identifying potentially threatened DD species. To address this knowledge gap, we used predictive models incorporating species' life history, geography, threat information predict conservation terrestrial mammals. We constructed with 7 machine learning (ML) tools trained on known status. The resultant showed very high classification accuracy (up 92%) ability correctly identify centers richness. Applying best model species, predicted 313 493 (64%) be at extinction, which increases estimated proportion mammals from 22% 27%. Regions contain large numbers are already priorities, but in areas show considerably higher levels than previously recognized. conclude that unless directly targeted monitoring, classified as likely go extinct without notice. Taking into account may therefore help alleviate data gaps indicators conserve poorly biodiversity.

参考文章(47)
Robert Tibshirani, Trevor Hastie, Jerome H. Friedman, The Elements of Statistical Learning ,(2001)
Peter A. Flach, C sar Ferri, Jos Hern ndez-orallo, A Coherent Interpretation of AUC as a Measure of Aggregated Classification Performance international conference on machine learning. pp. 657- 664 ,(2011)
Andrew Balmford, Kevin J Gaston, Why biodiversity surveys are good value Nature. ,vol. 398, pp. 204- 205 ,(1999) , 10.1038/18339
Max Kuhn, Building Predictive Models in R Using the caret Package Journal of Statistical Software. ,vol. 28, pp. 1- 26 ,(2008) , 10.18637/JSS.V028.I05
Marcel Cardillo, Andy Purvis, Wes Sechrest, John L Gittleman, Jon Bielby, Georgina M Mace, Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores PLoS Biology. ,vol. 2, pp. e197- ,(2004) , 10.1371/JOURNAL.PBIO.0020197
B. Collen, J. E. M. Baillie, Barometer of life: sampling. Science. ,vol. 329, pp. 140- 140 ,(2010) , 10.1126/SCIENCE.329.5988.140-A
Neil Cumberlidge, Peter K.L. Ng, Darren C.J. Yeo, Celio Magalhães, Martha R. Campos, Fernando Alvarez, Tohru Naruse, Savel R. Daniels, Lara J. Esser, Felix Y.K. Attipoe, France-Lyse Clotilde-Ba, William Darwall, Anna McIvor, Jonathan E.M. Baillie, Ben Collen, Mala Ram, Freshwater crabs and the biodiversity crisis: Importance, threats, status, and conservation challenges Biological Conservation. ,vol. 142, pp. 1665- 1673 ,(2009) , 10.1016/J.BIOCON.2009.02.038
Marcel Cardillo, Erik Meijaard, Are comparative studies of extinction risk useful for conservation Trends in Ecology and Evolution. ,vol. 27, pp. 167- 171 ,(2012) , 10.1016/J.TREE.2011.09.013
S. N. Stuart, E. O. Wilson, J. A. McNeely, R. A. Mittermeier, J. P. Rodriguez, The Barometer of Life Science. ,vol. 328, pp. 177- 177 ,(2010) , 10.1126/SCIENCE.1188606
Stacy L. Özesmi, Can O. Tan, Uygar Özesmi, Methodological issues in building, training, and testing artificial neural networks in ecological applications Ecological Modelling. ,vol. 195, pp. 83- 93 ,(2006) , 10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2005.11.012