Historical drivers of extinction risk: using past evidence to direct future monitoring

摘要: Global commitments to halt biodiversity decline mean that it is essential monitor species' extinction risk. However, the work required assess risk intensive. We demonstrate an alternative approach monitoring risk, based on response of species external conditions. Using retrospective International Union for Conservation Nature Red List assessments, we classify transitions in 497 mammalian carnivores and ungulates between 1975 2013. Species moved lower categories, or remained Least Concern, were classified as ‘lower risk'; stayed a threatened category, higher category ‘higher risk'. Twenty-four predictor variables used predict transitions, including intrinsic traits (species biology) conditions (human pressure, distribution state conservation interventions). The model correctly up 90% all revealed complex interactions variables, such protected areas (PAs) versus human impact. most important predictors were: past PA extent, geographical range size, body taxonomic family Our results suggest targeted set metrics would efficiently identify facing could guide allocation resources