Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

摘要: To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting likely impacts on of different policy decisions allows decision makers understand if how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent Living Planet Index extinction risk (the Red List Index) under climate land-use change scenarios. Testing terrestrial carnivore ungulate species, we found that both decline steadily, by 2050, a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean declines 18–35% while increases for 8–23% depending assumptions about species responses change. BAU will therefore fail Convention Biological Diversity target 12 improving conservation status known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces losses compared with could lead increases. Our approach model changes brings focus scenarios directly level, thus taking into account an additional dimension paving way including stronger ecological foundations future assessments.