Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans.

摘要: Several global strategies for protected area (PA) expansion have been proposed to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi target 11 as a means stem biodiversity loss, required by 12. However, habitat loss outside PAs will continue affect habitats and species, may displace human activities into areas that might be even more important species persistence. Here we measure expected contribution of PA 12 estimating extent suitable available all terrestrial mammals, with without additional protection (the latter giving counterfactual outcome), under different socio-economic scenarios consequent land-use change 2020. We found expanding representation targets ecoregions Business-as-usual scenario result in worse prognosis than doing nothing 50% world's mammals. By contrast, targeting towards threatened can increase over 60% Even absence protection, an alternative scenario, adopting progressive changes consumption, leads positive outcomes mammals globally largest improvements wide-ranging species.