Exploring a spatial statistical approach to quantify flood risk perception using cognitive maps

摘要: Modern flood risk management strategies have evolved from resistance to a holistic approach incorporating prevention, protection and preparedness with the aim of reducing likelihood and/or impact flooding. This evolution has been driven by trend increasingly damaging frequent events due climate change. Populations at are required be an active participant within modern plans, resulting in plan effectiveness being partially dependent on relevant population’s perception. Thus, understanding how at-risk populations perceive their own risk, this compares reality situation, is significant component management. paper subjective perception objective measure specific case study area, where 305 residents were surveyed risk. As part survey, respondents asked delineate areas area that they perceived would inundation during severe event. Using spatial statistical indicators, including Fuzzy Kappa comparison, it was possible quantify divergence between measures extent, enabling assessment ‘correctness’ novel identified deviations individual level. The concludes considering potential policy implications.