Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time

摘要: Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal especially important due the large populations these limited serve. However, few studies have addressed issue urban vulnerability at landscape scale with spatial data that finely resolved. The purpose this study was model map role natural habitats in reducing Jamaica Bay, New York, terms nine metrics (relief, exposure, geomorphology, habitats, exposure no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, surge) under past (1609), current (2015), future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed results both spatially across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) distance damage from Hurricane Sandy. found significant differences between past, for except relief exposure. marsh islands center bay currently vulnerable. In future, will likely be inundated, placing additional areas shoreline increasingly risk. Significant exist stakeholders; Breezy Point Cooperative Gateway National Recreation Area had largest segments. correlations (exposure/surge) combinations artificial debris. protective features, ranging surge barriers levees features (e.g. wetlands), been promoted decrease flood risk communities around world. Our methods combining multiple periods considerable potential provide valuable predictions resource managers can effectively use identify restoration protection.