Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways
作者： Jean-François Lamarque , G Page Kyle , Malte Meinshausen , Keywan Riahi , Steven J Smith
DOI: 10.1007/S10584-011-0155-0
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摘要: In this paper, we discuss the results of 2000–2100 simulations following emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) a chemistry-climate model, focusing on changes in 1) atmospheric composition (troposphere and stratosphere) 2) environmental parameters (such as nitrogen deposition). particular, find that tropospheric ozone is projected to decrease (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP6) or increase (RCP8.5) between 2000 2100, variations methane strong contributor spread. The global radiative forcing shown be agreement estimate used RCPs, except for RCP8.5. Surface 2100 change little compared from its distribution, much-reduced impact previous projections based A2 high-emission scenario. addition, globally-averaged stratospheric recover at beyond pre-1980 levels. Anthropogenic aerosols are strongly 21st century, reflection their emissions. Consequently, sulfate deposition decrease. However, over certain regions because NH3
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