Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault

摘要: SUMMARY We study a recently proposed statistical physics model of earthquake dynamics that includes stress relaxation in the plates as fundamental ingredient. The is known to reproduce manyrealisticfeaturesofseismicphenomena,suchas:theGutenberg–Richterlawfortheevent size distribution, Omori law for aftershocks and an overall velocity-weakening dependence average friction force. Here, we analyse detail, order investigate what extent occurrence large events can be anticipated. systematically find occur fault patches where strain accumulation has exceeded some threshold value. spatial these (which correlate with magnitude offorthcoming events) canbe calculated ifthe strainstateofthe systemissupposed tobe known. Inaddition, wefind are preceded by well-defined precursor activity.Thisallows,inafractionofcases,tocomplementtheforecastofmagnitudeandspatial location, sensible prediction time occurrence. Although our work exclusively limited numerical analysed, argue it gives new breath forecast techniques combine historical analysis seismic activity search appropriate activity.