Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors

摘要: Abstract We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction named “ Reverse Tracing of Precursors ” (RTP), since it considers precursors in reverse order their appearance. First, we detect the “candidates” for precursors; our case, these are newly introduced chains earthquakes reflecting rise an correlation range. Then consider each chain, one by one, checking whether was preceded intermediate-term precursor its vicinity. If yes , regard this chain as precursor; would start alarm. The indicates narrow area possibly complex shape, where should be looked for. This makes possible undetectable direct analysis. RTP can best described on example application; describe retrospective two prominent Californian earthquakes—Landers (1992), M =7.6, and Hector Mine (1999), =7.3, suggest hypothetical algorithm. paper descripes methodology, which has potentially important applications many other data critical phenomena besides earthquakes. In particular, might vindicate some precursors, previously rejected giving too false alarms. Validation algorithm per se requires application different regions with substantial number strong First (and positive) results obtained 21 more California ( ≥6.4), Japan ≥7.0) Eastern Mediterranean ≥6.5); elsewhere. final validation requires, always, advance study sets up base. have first case precursory reported subsequent (Tokachi-oki, Japan, 25 September 2003, =8.1). Possible mechanisms underlying outlined.