Gambling score in earthquake prediction analysis

摘要: SUMMARY The number of successes and the space–time alarm rate are commonly used to characterize strength an earthquake prediction method significance results. It has been recently suggested use a new characteristic evaluate forecaster's skill, gambling score (GS), which incorporates difficulty guessing each target event by using different weights for alarms. We expand parametrization GS M8 algorithm illustrate difficulties approach in analysis significance. show that level strongly depends (1) on choice weights, (2) partitioning entire volume into component parts (3) accuracy spatial measure events. These tools at disposal researcher can affect estimate. Formally, all reasonable GSs discussed here corroborate is non-trivial 8.0 ≤M < 8.5 events because point estimates range 0.5–5 per cent. However, conservative estimate 3.7 cent based seems preferable owing two circumstances: it relative values hence more stable statistic enables us construct analytically upper taking account uncertainty measure.