Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

摘要: Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most studies that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection protected are intended to ensure the long-term persistence biodiversity often based on snapshot current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in sense being accounts plausible futures, can be utilized identify area portfolios robust We compared three approaches utilizing scenarios selection: considering full set (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming realization specific scenarios, reference strategy situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was compare robustness these terms their relative performance across scenarios. focused breeding bird species Israel's Mediterranean region. simulated urban development vegetation dynamics 60 years into using DINAMICA-EGO, cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped target species' available habitat distribution, identified priority site-selection software MARXAN, constructed aforementioned strategies. then assessed portfolio number which representation targets were met scenario. all-scenarios consistently outperformed other portfolios, more 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed scenario did occur). On average, achieved five additional with (approximately 33 versus 28 species). findings highlight importance broad meaningful rather than relying expected occurrence or worst-case