Major current and future gaps of Brazilian reserves to protect Neotropical savanna birds

摘要: Abstract We tested the prediction that climate-driven changes might alter bird species composition in reserves of Cerrado region Brazil. First, we modelled current distributions and potential future projections 38 endemic or rare species. used eight modelling techniques within BIOMOD computational framework an ensemble-forecasting approach to reach a consensus scenario. Then compared (2046–2060) under different scenarios (reserve size dispersal) with Brazilian reserve system assess adequacy protection (representation) each detect gaps their protection. Finally, identify areas high probability occurrence several species, calculated cumulative climatic suitability all for both scenarios. None is covered any scenarios, revealing highly inefficient conserving analyzed The implementation new cover climate recommended south-eastern part mountains east Due already land use southeast Cerrado, application non-traditional conservation measures should be evaluated.