Evaluating the Connectivity of a Protected Areas' Network under the Prism of Global Change: The Efficiency of the European Natura 2000 Network for Four Birds of Prey

摘要: Climate and land use changes are major threats to biodiversity. To preserve biodiversity, networks of protected areas have been established worldwide, like the Natura 2000 network across European Union (EU). Currently, this reserve consists more than 26000 sites covering 17% EU terrestrial territory. Its efficiency mitigate detrimental effects climate change remains an open research question. Here, we examined potential current future geographical ranges four birds prey under scenarios both changes. By using graph theory, how will perform in regard conservation these species. This approach determines importance a site total its connectivity. We found that becoming unsuitable due not random sample network, but less connected contribute overall connectivity average thus their loss does disrupt full network. Hence, remaining changed only slightly from present day conditions. Our findings highlight need establish species-specific management plans with flexible strategies ensuring protection range expansions. Aquila pomarina is predicted disappear southern part become restricted northeastern Europe. Gyps fulvus, chrysaetos, Neophron percnopterus locally lose some suitable sites; hence, isolated small populations may extinct. However, metapopulation structure remain relatively unaffected throughout These species would benefit improved habitat quality existing increased or assisted migration.