The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices

摘要: More than half a century after the advent of nuclear age, is world approaching tipping point that will unleash an epidemic proliferation? Today many building blocks arsenal --scientific and engineering expertise, precision machine tools, software, design information --are more readily available ever before. The pretensions so-called rogue states terrorist organizations are much discussed. But how firm resolve those countries historically have chosen to forswear weapons? A combination changes in international environment could set off domino effect, with scrambling develop weapons so as not be left behind --or "hedge" capacities would allow them build arsenals relatively quickly, if necessary. Nuclear Tipping Point examines factors, both domestic transnational, shape policy. authors, distinguished scholars foreign policy practitioners extensive government experience, framework for understanding why certain may originally decided renounce --and pinpoint some recent country-specific factors give cause reconsider. Case studies eight long-term stalwarts nonproliferation regime --Egypt, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Syria, Turkey, Taiwan --flesh out this show even these might pushed over edge point. authors offer prescriptions prevent such from reconsidering their option avert proliferation by others. stakes enormous success far assured. To keep beyond reach, argue, community act unity, imagination, strength, Washington's leadership essential. Contributors include Leon Feurth, George Washington University; Ellen Laipson, Stimson Center; Thomas W. Lippman, Middle East Institute; Jenifer Mackby, Center Strategic International Studies; Derek J. Mitchell, Jonathan D. Pollack, U.S. Naval War College; Walter B. Slocombe, Caplin Drysdale; Tsuyoshi Sunohara, Studies.