An Integrative Methodological Framework for Setting Environmental Criteria: Evaluation of Public Preferences

摘要: Abstract The main objective of the present study is to introduce public preferences into development water-quality criteria that effectively balance environmental concerns and socioeconomic values. A novel feature our research analysis subjective judgments with Bayesian inference techniques, which are ultimately connected conditions through mathematical modeling. Our case Bay Quinte, Ontario, Canada; an embayment at northeastern end Lake Ontario a long history eutrophication, characterized by frequent spatially extensive algal blooms predominance toxic cyanobacteria. In this study, we major survey determine opinions on water quality in area. was conducted among random sample 1527 local residents tourists during summers 2013 2014. key findings were: (i) fishing (29%) beauty area (20%) were reasons for use Quinte; (ii) different problems, chose scums (26%) integrity fish populations (22%) as issues; (iii) only 30% returning visitors noticed clarity better now relative prevailing five years ago; (iv) there dramatic change sentiment between beginning summer season; (v) substantial portion willing contribute financially towards restoration bay. modeling suggests likelihood satisfaction increases significantly when total phosphorus concentrations fall below critical levels 20–25 μg L−1, however difficult target achieve even under reduced nutrient-loading conditions. Other biological variables such chlorophyll concentrations, harmful blooms, toxin locations frequently used appear more closely influence their level.