Including Foreshocks and Aftershocks in Time‐Independent Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Analyses

摘要: Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks aftershocks, which are both dependent on the mainshock, removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of seismic hazard, capable producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider mainshock its dependents a time‐independent cluster, cluster independent any other. The has recurrence time mainshock; and, by considering in union events, events have an opportunity to contribute motions hazard. Based methods U.S. Geological Survey for high‐hazard site, inclusion causes that exceeded at probability levels engineering interest increase about 10% but could high 20% if variations aftershock productivity can accounted reliably.