Sequence‐Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

摘要: Abstract Earthquakes are typically clustered both in space and time. Only mainshocks, the largest magnitude events within each cluster, considered by classical seismic hazard, which is expressed terms of rate exceedance a ground‐motion intensity measure at site interest (Cornell, 1968). This kind probabilistic hazard analysis (PSHA) used for structural design or assessment long term. Recently, short‐term risk management purposes, similar approach has been adopted to perform aftershock (APSHA), conditional mainshock occurrence (Yeo Cornell, 2009). PSHA often refers homogeneous Poisson process describe event occurrence, whereas APSHA models via nonhomogeneous process, depends on that triggered sequence. On other hand, clusters, composed following aftershocks, may be seen as single occurring same mainshocks. allow accounting aftershocks relatively simple manner, first argued Toro Silva (2001) further investigated Boyd (2012). In fact, this short note, focusing aspects, shows feasibility analytically combining results get integral mainshock–aftershocks sequences, was still missing from mentioned studies. The application presented help preliminarily assess increase causing an acceleration threshold (e.g., design) also considering aftershocks. That relevant aspect earthquake engineering perspective.