Forecasting and making policies for Postal Services: system dynamics approach (Iran Post Company as a case study)
作者： Marzieh Zarinbal , Hamidreza Izadbakhsh , Salman Shahvali , Ramin HosseinAlizadeh , Fariba ZadehLabaf
DOI: 10.24200/SCI.2020.53368.3206
关键词:
摘要: The main activity in postal services is to deliver letter mails and parcels. By changing customers’ needs behaviors along with emerging new technologies, have be renovated. Thus, understanding the environment, forecasting performance, identifying key drivers, making effective interventions are critical for any further actions. Performing these actions Iran Post Company focus of this paper. Therefore, system dynamic approach chosen, variables determined causal-loop diagram (CLD) stock flow (SFD) developed. results then validated using expert panels historical data developed model utilized policy making. two scenarios designed based on changes rates, quality e-service market share. These could provide CEOs information make interventions.
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