Incorporating Uncertainty into World Energy Modelling: the PROMETHEUS Model

摘要: In general, policy and most economic decisions like investments are formulated in a non-deterministic context. Their analysis can be considerably enhanced if probability information on future outcomes is available, especially terms of unbiased estimates the extent unpredictability stochastic dependence. For sake transparency, it also important to able trace justification variability its structure. This paper introduces PROMETHEUS, model world energy system that designed produce joint empirical distributions concerning many variables evolution system. The methodology based Monte Carlo techniques, inputs derived large not only from statistical econometric but specialised studies. emphasis placed exhaustive coverage including omitted variables. By incorporating detailed uncertainty into comprehensive large-scale global model, PROMETHEUS used quantify probabilistic assessments outcomes, which constitute critical parameters formulating robust climate policies. description main characteristics complemented with an analytical example illustrates usefulness results context power generation under uncertainty.