Are Hard Pegs Ever Credible in Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard

摘要: We test whether fixed exchange rate regimes are ever credible in emerging markets by analyzing the behavior of short-term domestic trade bills across countries during classical gold standard period, most widely used hard peg modern financial history. exploit fact that global capital were unfettered order to identify currency-risk component using uncovered interest parity for 17 largest market borrowers period 1870-1913. show five years after a country joined standard, currency risk premium averaged at least 285 basis points economies. estimate investors expected rates fall roughly 28 percent even standard. Positive premiums persisted long adoption suggests pegs may never be fully credible.