Globalization and the Great Divergence: terms of trade booms, volatility and the poor periphery, 1782–1913

摘要: W. Arthur Lewis argued that a new international economic order emerged between 1870 and 1913, global terms of trade forces produced rising primary product specialization de-industrialization in the poor periphery. More recently, modern economists argue volatility reduces growth This article assesses these 1782 1913 during Great Divergence. First, it argues had been firmly established by 1870, transition took place century before, not after. Second, evidence from 1870–1939 confirms while improvements raised long-run rich core, they did do so Given secular boom, thus de-industrialization, was much bigger periphery before than after, one might plausibly infer help explain Third, growth-reducing also contributed to Terms greater core 1870. It still very big after certainly far core. Based on drawn 1870–2000, we know such lowers periphery, negative impact is big. Since even helps Divergence