Prediction for the amplitude of solar cycle 24 from the pattern of activity near the cycle minimum
作者： M. I. Pishkalo
DOI: 10.3103/S0884591313010054
关键词:
摘要: Correlations are investigated between the pattern of solar activity described by smoothed monthly relative sunspot numbers (Wolf numbers) near minimum a cycle and amplitude. The closest correlation is found amplitude sum decrease in over two years prior to increase after minimum; coefficient these parameters 0.92. This parameter used as precursor predict 24, which expected reach its maximum (85 ± 12) February 2014. Based on correlations mean cycles, 24 last for approximately 11.3 next 25 predicted May 2020.
springer.com
harvard.edu
sci-hub.se 参考文章(32)
M. I. Pishkalo, Prediction of Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on Polar Magnetic Field of the Sun at Cycle Minimum Sun and Geosphere. ,vol. 5, pp. 47- 51 ,(2010)
S. Duhau, An Early Prediction of Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24 Solar Physics. ,vol. 213, pp. 203- 212 ,(2003) , 10.1023/A:1023260916825
E. Cliver, Domagoj Ruždjak, Giuliana Verbanac, M. Roth, A. Hanslmeier, L. Svalgaard, H. Woehl, Roman Brajša, A PREDICTION FOR THE 24TH SOLAR CYCLE Central European Astrophysical Bulletin. ,vol. 33, pp. 95- ,(2009)
Mark A. Clilverd, Ellen Clarke, Thomas Ulich, Henry Rishbeth, Martin J. Jarvis, Predicting Solar Cycle 24 and beyond Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications. ,vol. 4, ,(2006) , 10.1029/2005SW000207
J. Javaraiah, Erratum to: Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle using the North – South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle 24 Solar Physics. ,vol. 266, pp. 225- 225 ,(2010) , 10.1007/S11207-010-9617-1
M. I. Pishkalo, Preliminary prediction of solar cycles 24 and 25 based on the correlation between cycle parameters Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies. ,vol. 24, pp. 242- 247 ,(2008) , 10.3103/S0884591308050036
Mykola I. Pishkalo, Flattening Index of the Solar Corona and the Solar Cycle Solar Physics. ,vol. 270, pp. 347- 363 ,(2011) , 10.1007/S11207-011-9749-Y
Zhanle Du, The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function Solar Physics. ,vol. 273, pp. 231- 253 ,(2011) , 10.1007/S11207-011-9849-8
B. Kakad, A New Method for Prediction of Peak Sunspot Number and Ascent Time of the Solar Cycle Solar Physics. ,vol. 270, pp. 393- 406 ,(2011) , 10.1007/S11207-011-9726-5
William Dean Pesnell, Predictions of Solar Cycle 24 Solar Physics. ,vol. 252, pp. 209- 220 ,(2008) , 10.1007/S11207-008-9252-2