How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabies Petrogale penicillata

摘要: 1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical might be better management. A less expensive source of species' information is expert opinion. This study evaluates knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether built apply over multiple regions or only within region where was derived. 2. The case focuses brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different substantial well-designed field nine experts. used a novel elicitation tool geographical system systematically collect opinions. utilized an indirect approach elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, measures place identify uncertainty offer feedback. Bayesian analysis combine each determine: (i) how opinion affected based (ii) similar expert-informed were across regions. 3. effectively captured experts' opinions their uncertainties. Experts comfortable map-based used, especially graphical tended predict lower values species occurrence compared data. 4. Across experts, consensus effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert generally influenced predictions south-east Queensland north-east New South Wales had influence elevation geology, these differences attributable geological between 5. Synthesis applications. When formulated as priors analysis, useful modifying strengthening patterns exhibited by that are limited size scope. Nevertheless, ability extrapolate beyond may poor. Hence there significant merit obtaining local when compiling