Transport electrification : the effect of recent battery cost reduction on future emission scenarios

摘要: Although the rapid fall in costs of batteries has made electric vehicles (EVs) more affordable and boosted their sales, EVs still account for only a fraction total car sales. In last years, battery have dropped faster than previously estimated empirical literature. As result, future cost projections been adjusted. The larger expected reduction also shows uncertainty development, which will affect success transition to low-carbon transport. Integrated assessment models show that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is challenging transport sector other sectors. Switching could significantly reduce passenger road-transport emissions. this study, we test sensitivity projected sales different climate policy futures. model suggests effectiveness incentives strongly depend on floor costs, as gain significant shares (15% or more) global within our framework when reach 100 $/kWh less. We therefore conclude besides pace decline, it important understand lower boundary modelling long-term energy transitions.