Low Dimensional Strange Attractors in Epidemics of Childhood Diseases in Copenhagen, Denmark
作者： Lars Folke Olsen
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4757-9631-5_27
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摘要: The monthly reported cases of six childhood diseases in Copenhagen, Denmark over periods 30–40 years were analysed by three different non-linear techniques: (1) Calculation the correlation dimension, (2) calculation Lyapunov exponents from apparently 1D maps derived Poincare sections flows and (3) maximal flows. Combining results these types analysis leads to following conclusions: (measles, mumps rubella) evolve with chaotic dynamics, one disease (chicken pox) evolves dynamics corresponding a noise-perturbed damped oscillation remaining two (pertussis scarlet fever) that are completely obscured random fluctuations.
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