The Problem of the Persistent Hog Price Cycle: A Chaotic Solution

摘要: A persistent hog-corn price ratio has been known to exist since the early 1930s and many attempts have made then model its dynamics. That these models ineffectual as forecasting tools is apparent by fact that hog cycle persisted this day. In paper I propose increased accuracy can be obtained adjusting traditional so they account for deterministic, nonlinear processes. With improved forecasts, costs of countercyclical production will decrease, dampening perhaps even eliminating cycle. The chaotic dynamics confirmed, system are developed. analysis provides framework developing a function forecast ratio.