Patchiness of forest landscape can predict species distribution better than abundance: the case of a forest-dwelling passerine, the short-toed treecreeper, in central Italy.

摘要: Environmental heterogeneity affects not only the distribution of a species but also its local abundance. High due to habitat alteration and fragmentation can influence realized niche species, lowering suitability as well reducing We investigate whether relationship exists between abundance both are affected by fragmentation. Our aim was assess predictive power such derive advice for environmental management. As model we used forest specialist, short-toed treecreeper (Family: Certhiidae; Certhia brachydactyla Brehm, 1820), sampled it in central Italy. Species modelled function structure, productivity fragmentation, while directly estimated two Italian stands. Different algorithms were implemented distribution, employing 170 occurrence points provided mostly MITO2000 database: an artificial neural network, classification tree analysis, flexible discriminant generalized boosting models, linear multivariate additive regression splines, maximum entropy random forests. Abundance considering detectability, through N-mixture models. Differences stands assessed existence relationship. Simpler resulted higher goodness fit than complex ones. Fragmentation highly influential determining potential distribution. Local differed significantly stands, which different degree Regression showed that has weak significant effect explaining increasing value In particular, abundances varied at low high values. The study lends support concept contribute alter area Even if be early warning deterioration, needs further research. However, define relationships some landscape features (i.e., extensive rejuvenation forests plantations) could easily controlled appropriate management planning enhance suitability, least possessing conservation biodiversity