The Evidential Value in the DNA Database Search Controversy and the Two-Stain Problem

摘要: Does the evidential strength of a DNA match depend on whether suspect was identified through database search or other evidence ("probable cause")? In Balding and Donnelly (1995, Journal Royal Statistical Society, Series A 158, 21-53) elsewhere, it has been argued that is slightly larger in case than probable cause case, while Stockmarr (1999, Biometrics 55, 671-677) reached opposite conclusion. Both these approaches use likelihood ratios. By making an excursion to similar problem, two-stain we argue this article there are certain fundamental difficulties with ratio, which can be avoided by concentrating posterior odds. This approach helps resolving above-mentioned conflict.