Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data

摘要: ‘Big-data’ epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case livestock, detailed movement records have been parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock data readily available in UK other countries EU, many around world, such not available. By using a comprehensive database cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies determine quantity network required give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes highest number movements, predictions on size spatial spread epidemics can be made. This work has implications for as USA, where access limited, developing may lack resources collect full dataset movements.