Generation investment evaluation under uncertainty in a competitive environment

摘要: This paper proposes a new explicit, step-by-step approach for generating company to evaluate investments considering uncertainties and future expected investment from its competitors. We introduce probabilistic valuation model provide the wider analytical framework as well incorporate risk assessment in evaluation. The consists of i) defining statistical distribution load growth plant technologies' fuel cost; ii) anticipating competitors' expansion using dynamic programming; iii) cash-flow by clearing market every year with respect anticipated system over life time plant; iv) computing plant's rate return profit within simulation period; v) performing Monte Carlo capture fluctuations return; vi) analyzing making decision.