Evaluation of generation expansion investment under competitive market environment

摘要: This paper proposes a new approach of generation expansion planning and its risk assessment under the competitive market environment. Different from traditional probabilistic production costing (PPC) method monopoly environment which is based on deterministic generator loading priority list, uncertainties biddings for long-term contracts in electricity are introduced into model. Based probability distribution surplus bidding price over marginal cost, expected generated energy given period can be achieved to calculate profit generator. In order manage risks investment project, tool called conditional value at (CVaR) used. It gives investors an intuitionistic criterion making decision. A numerical example this valid method.