Electricity generation portfolio evaluation for highly uncertain and carbon constrained future electricity industries

摘要: This paper proposes a stochastic model based on Monte-Carlo simulation to assess the expected costs and risks of different generation portfolios for electricity industries in an increasingly uncertain carbon constrained world. The approach can incorporate fossil-fuel prices virtually any probability distributions, as well possible correlations between them. tool provides overall their associated distribution portfolio mix. is applied case study industry with coal, CCGT OCGT options that faces future fuel prices. Lognormal distributions are used uncertainty. Results from highlight some important issues including potentially significant interactions gas performance. proposed enables tradeoffs system cost, cost uncertainty CO 2 emissions among be identified.