Overcoming the worst of both worlds: integrating climate change and habitat loss into spatial conservation planning of genetic diversity in the Brazilian Cerrado

摘要: Conservation strategies aiming to safeguard species genetic diversity in the Cerrado are urgent. The biome is an agriculture frontier and lost at least 50% of its natural capital since early 1950s, with highest rate vegetation clearing among all Brazilian biomes. Here we match information on geographic range shifts response climate changes habitat loss define conservation priorities for using Eugenia dysenterica, a widely distributed tree across Cerrado. We found set 27 optimal solutions which minimum 12 out 23 populations necessary represent 208 alleles species. Environmental suitability predicted 2050 was higher southern region Cerrado, whereas proportion remnants around expected 2030 lower this same region. Thus, it seems be more conservative adopt “in situ” northwestern part hold areas harboring high numbers remnants, despite likely reduction climatic suitability. On other hand, southeastern range, stability from point view, there serious constraint given levels human occupation; case, “ex might better option Our results proposed enable different making operational approach diversity. Adopting prioritization stable unstable regions (both remnants) future would allow, principle, avoid “the worst both worlds” achieve efficient program