Better Forecasts, Better Plans, Better Results

摘要: Enhance the validity and credibility of your forecasts by structuring them in accordance with five different ways people view future. Overview: The value that decision makers place on formal forecasts-and extent to which they act those forecasts-depends their conviction forecast is supported credible data, treated a logical manner. Structuring future can enhance both forecasts. These viewpoints be classified into categories: extrapolators, pattern analysts, goal counterpunchers, extrapolators. Although there are circumstances under each viewing most appropriate, likelihood successful greatly increased when techniques from several these used concert. Society's long-term ambivalence about projections developments illustrated intriguing fact at time Greek city states were basing military strategies predictions Oracle Delphi, Roman Emperor Justinian decreed death penalty for anyone engaged forecasting. (Given Rome's subsequent conquest Greece, it doesn't appear entrails-readers provided much help.) In reality, course, all important business decisions based, large measure, how decision-makers foresee market demand, competitive threats, new technologies, financial realities, regulatory restrictions, social mores, host other influencing factors. key question, therefore, not whether executives use forecasts, but rather, formulate views views. forecasts--depends manner, support forecasts: mind decision-maker, necessarily forecaster. Therefore, useful, must valid-based solid facts proven analytical techniques-and credible, meaning convincing making decisions. term "valid" instead "accurate" deliberately here. forecasters would prefer accurate, actually, depends its specific accuracy but, contributes better decisionmaking. forecasting, being approximately right always than precisely wrong. fact, best often never borne out because have acted prevent unfavorable happening. Extrapolators. Pattern analysts. Goal Counter-punchers. Intuitors. Each has strengths shortcomings motivate certain discourage others. There methods recognized forecasting field associated category, supporters detractors. Almost everyone feels comfortable one or another no hard-and-fast rules, seems engineers basically pure scientists primarily marketing majority intuitors, although, interestingly, many characterize themselves as counter-punchers. approaches, individually concert, provide foundation powerful program. …