Modelling the European Farmland Bird Indicator in response to forecast land-use change in Europe
作者： Paul Scholefield , Les Firbank , Simon Butler , Ken Norris , Laurence M. Jones
DOI: 10.1016/J.ECOLIND.2009.09.008
关键词:
摘要: The European Farmland Bird Indicator (EFBI) has been adopted as a Structural and Sustainable Development by the Union. It is an aggregated index integrating population trends of 33 common bird species associated with farmland habitats across 21 countries. We describe modelling method for predicting this indicator from land-use characteristics. Using yearly historical data crop areas derived FAO databases (1990–2007) published birds at national level same period, we developed series multiple regression models to predict trend EU state specific indicator, EFBI. These incorporated up 4 parameters were selected based upon significance (p < 0.05) model inputs respect predictive variable. 17 separate in total each 14 countries plus Norway Switzerland, indicator. then implemented EFBI year 2025, using scenarios change generated CAPRI agricultural model. uncertainty discussed likely impacts on populations. This work lays framework future international scale.
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